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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

A |     WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。    Former Mexican Attorney General Jesús Murillo Karam was sentenced to preventative detention in the Norte Prison on Saturday in the explosive trial over his alleged role in the coverup of the murder and disappearance of 43 teachers from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers’ College in 2014.,Murillo stands accused of concealing evidence and being complicit in serious human rights violations, including torture, in a case which shocked domestic audiences and international observers alike with the extent of the corruption revealed. His arrest came hours after publication of the findings of a truth commission – established as one of the first acts of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador upon taking power in 2018 – found the massacre to be a state-sponsored crime.,The day after the Mexican government recognised the enforced disappearance of the 43 #Ayotzinapa students as a state crime, the authorities have reportedly arrested Jesús Murillo Karam, the former attorney general whose investigation into the crime has been exposed as a coverup. https://t.co/uOivXaOvOP— Duncan Tucker (@DuncanTucker) August 19, 2022,While Mexico’s former ‘top cop’ is just the first to face the music for his alleged role in the 2014 killing and disappearance of 43 teachers in Ayotzinapa, he wasn’t the last – his arrest came just hours before a judge issued arrest warrants for 83 military commanders, cops, cartel members, and local officials suspected to have participated in the slayings, disappearances, and subsequent cover-up.,Murillo is undoubtedly the most high-profile politician to face charges, however.,Murillo rose to prominence after being elected governor of Hidalgo in 1993 under the banner of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Five years later, he was appointed undersecretary of public security. In 2006, he would go on to be elected senator and take the reins of the PRI as the party’s secretary general. In 2012, Murillo was appointed attorney general by then-President Enrique Peña Nieto.,But his political career came crashing down in 2014, following his mishandling of the Ayotzinapa massacre. The beginning of the end most likely came in the aftermath of the slayings, on November 7, when Murillo abruptly departed from a news conference after dismissively telling journalists: “ya me cansé.” Translation: he’s “had enough.”,© AP Photo / Marco UgarteMexico Chronicle of DisbeliefMexico Chronicle of Disbelief© AP Photo / Marco Ugarte,The hashtag #YaMeCanse quickly emerged as a rallying cry in protests which cropped up across the country. Murillo stepped down as attorney general in 2015, and it wasn’t until Mexico’s current president took office and proposed a truth commission that serious institutional momentum started to gather behind the movement for justice for the disappeared.,The 43 teachers in question had been returning from a protest when their buses were stopped and police opened fire on them. Murillo’s insistence (in what he infamously described as the “historical truth”) that the killings were the work of local drug gangs, and that their bodies were subsequently incarcerated at a dump, was debunked by the truth commission this week.,The timing of Murillo’s arrest, coming just hours after the report was published, suggests the findings are most likely what led to the charges of “altering facts and circumstances to establish a false conclusion” which the former top cop now finds himself facing. Murillo’s next hearing is scheduled for August 24.。

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